| On October 13, the University of Wisconsin-Madison hosted a day-long workshop on "Nuclear Security in Northeast Asia," drawing experts on politics, history, and international studies from around the country. Although the conference had been scheduled long in advance, it took place only days after the North Korean nuclear test and days before the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to impose sanctions on North Korea. As a result, the workshop gained a sense of urgency as possible consequences of the test were discussed and debated. The day culminated in an hour-long roundtable discussion in which nine of the experts discussed the network of international relations that surround the emergence of North Korea as a nuclear state. UW-Madison Associate Professor of History Jeremi Suri moderated. The forum began with UW Professor of History Edward Friedman and Assistant Professor John Ohnesorge exploring the question of whether the antagonistic foreign policy of North Korea could be considered rational enough to possibly predict. "I don't think there's anything wrong with considering policies of North Korea to be irrational; but it does not follow that war will result," said Dr. Friedman. The range of possible responses from other involved countries could be rationally analyzed, however. The roundtable examined the history and potential future of North Korean relations with South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States. South Korea, which in recent years had been improving relations with the North in large part due to South Korea's "Sunshine Policy," which encouraged peace and cooperation and potentially eventual reunification, has now been forced to temporarily abandon cooperative efforts and reinforce its relationship with America. Professor Sung Chull Kim of the Hiroshima Peace Institute, the workshop's only participant from overseas, expects that America is likely to be entangled in conflict if there is any aggression against South Korea. "In South Korea, people think they are helpless and the only way is to return to the South Korea and United States alliance," Kim said, noting that 82% of South Koreans think North Korea's tests represent an imminent threat. UW Associate Professor of Political Science David Leheny characterized America as unprepared for the decisions facing them as the world's dominant superpower and North Korea's greatest antagonist. He identified a need for frank and open academic discussion of foreign policy in American government: "What I'm going to say is based on my somewhat bitter experience in the State Department ... [politicians] focus on points that support their policy .... scholars who are invited to give lectures are those supporting American policy." University of Chicago Professor of History Bruce Cummings agreed. "Almost everyone makes their policy decisions based on partisan calculations," he said, recalling Clinton supporters who by 2002 had begun to support Bush's policy of "getting tough." President Clinton had considered a pre-emptive strike against North Korea until he was advised that a war would take at least half a million soldiers, six months, and would result in 100,000 body bags. The other superpower involved is in a particularly delicate position and is being forced to realign its loyalties. "There is a lot more tension in Sino-North Korean relations than often comes out," said Cummings. "China does not want to honor the defense treaty they signed with North Korea." Chinese territorial ambitions were cited as a possible complication to any conflict. Friedman identified a silver lining on the mushroom cloud: "[The North Korean test] is promoting some Chinese-Japanese reconciliation." Suri summed up the situation: "All we've said today points to an internal logic in North Korea, but a dynamic that is becoming increasingly dangerous." The panel then answered questions from the audience, one of which asked about the potential humanitarian ramifications of then-theoretical sanctions. Scott Rembrandt, Director of Research and Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute, feared that a famine to match the one North Korea endured in the mid-1990s might result. "You can't kill a country," said Rembrandt, "only the people." |
| Nuclear security in Northeast Asia by Ben Freund |
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