A UW-Madison gathering discusses
“The Day After: Who Won the 2008 Election and Why”
“The Day After: Who Won the 2008 Election and Why”
by Ben Patterson
On November 5, a group of students, professors, and interested individuals gathered in the Tripp Commons of the University of Wisconsin’s Memorial Union
to get the details of the election first hand from a panel of political scientists. Professors David Canon, Kenneth Mayer, and Byron Shafer all sat down to discuss
the election in a lecture titled “The Day After: Who Won the 2008 Election and Why.” The panel’s goal was to examine the campaigns of both candidates, the
reason for Barack Obama’s victory, and the challenges that await his presidency.
Professor Byron Shafer, an expert in a wide range of concentrations including political parties and electoral campaigns started the lecture with an emphasis
on the importance of both campaign financing and the recent downward spiral of the economy. Shafer pointed out that no campaign, with the possible
exception of the McKinley campaign in 1896, has ever had a larger financial advantage for advertising than Barack Obama had.
With the obvious advantage in raising vast sums of money privately, as the Obama campaign did, Shafer forecasted the death of public financing for future
presidential elections. Obama had such a wealth of campaign contributions that he was able to spend $15 million for advertising in video games alone, the
final weeks of his campaign, according to Shafer.
Regardless of the financial advantage and other issues within the campaigns, the recent credit crisis may have been the single factor for Obama’s election.
“Did people become comfortable with Barack Obama or was the McCain campaign just miserably garbled? The answer depends on how big you think the credit
crisis is in the middle of the whole story,” Byron said. McCain’s personal admission of having little knowledge of the economy may have helped push Obama
across the finish line when the economy became 60% of people’s number one issue as they went into the voting booth.
Professor David Canon, an expert in political institutions and particularly Congress, spoke second during the lecture. Canon’s comments focused on the
question of whether this particular election could be seen as transformational in nature. Canon commented that, “We certainly saw a lot of happy people …
celebrating the election around the world showing a euphoria … in a way we haven’t seen in a long time and this itself suggests a transformational quality.” But
Canon suggested that the exit polls taken during the election were a better indicator of the transformational character of this election.
According to the statistics provided by Canon, youth voters (18-29) voted in proportion to their population for the first time since the voting age was lowered
to 18 years old. This group had 66 percent of its voters supporting Obama. 95 percent of Blacks and 67percent of Latinos voted for Obama. Maybe most
surprisingly though, 52 percent of individuals making more than $200,000 a year voted for Obama despite his intentions to raise this group’s taxes. Essentially,
hints of change in voting behavior were seen in age, race, and income, marking this election as unique compared to past elections.
Professor Kenneth Mayer, a specialist in American government and campaign financing, used his time on the panel to highlight the challenges that await
Obama in the next four years. “I think expectations for Obama are higher for any president since Roosevelt… The spontaneous celebrations we saw last night
reflect the fact that people expect a lot from Obama,” Mayer said.
According to Mayer, Obama’s promises to close Guantanamo Bay and to lower taxes for everyone except the top 5 percent of income earners are two
examples of how Obama is going to be challenged to transition from simple campaign promises to real action. Mayer believed that there are ways to finesse
these issues while on the campaign trail, but once elected, Obama is going to face the reality that he may not be able to carry out every promise he made.
According to Mayer, if Obama enters the office and makes overt decisions that favor the liberal left, who are credited with his election, he may potentially face
a backlash in the future that could severely limit his power. This power struggle between the liberal left and conservative right was highlighted by all three
panelists as being a major issue that Obama will have to deal with early in his term.
All three panelists stressed the importance of Obama “governing from the center.” Mayer reminded everyone of the mistakes President Clinton made early in
his first term. Many people saw Clinton as being too much in favor of the far left and enacted policies in their favor. Two years after his election, Clinton lost a
great deal of his power when the Republican Revolution occurred and shifted the power of Congress significantly in favor of the Republican Party.
Panelists suggested that Obama be aware of the mistakes Clinton made in his presidency and realize that in order to be affective, Obama will need to “tip
toe back to the center,” Mayer said.
Ben Patterson is a UW-Madison student and an intern at Asian Wisconzine.
On November 5, a group of students, professors, and interested individuals gathered in the Tripp Commons of the University of Wisconsin’s Memorial Union
to get the details of the election first hand from a panel of political scientists. Professors David Canon, Kenneth Mayer, and Byron Shafer all sat down to discuss
the election in a lecture titled “The Day After: Who Won the 2008 Election and Why.” The panel’s goal was to examine the campaigns of both candidates, the
reason for Barack Obama’s victory, and the challenges that await his presidency.
Professor Byron Shafer, an expert in a wide range of concentrations including political parties and electoral campaigns started the lecture with an emphasis
on the importance of both campaign financing and the recent downward spiral of the economy. Shafer pointed out that no campaign, with the possible
exception of the McKinley campaign in 1896, has ever had a larger financial advantage for advertising than Barack Obama had.
With the obvious advantage in raising vast sums of money privately, as the Obama campaign did, Shafer forecasted the death of public financing for future
presidential elections. Obama had such a wealth of campaign contributions that he was able to spend $15 million for advertising in video games alone, the
final weeks of his campaign, according to Shafer.
Regardless of the financial advantage and other issues within the campaigns, the recent credit crisis may have been the single factor for Obama’s election.
“Did people become comfortable with Barack Obama or was the McCain campaign just miserably garbled? The answer depends on how big you think the credit
crisis is in the middle of the whole story,” Byron said. McCain’s personal admission of having little knowledge of the economy may have helped push Obama
across the finish line when the economy became 60% of people’s number one issue as they went into the voting booth.
Professor David Canon, an expert in political institutions and particularly Congress, spoke second during the lecture. Canon’s comments focused on the
question of whether this particular election could be seen as transformational in nature. Canon commented that, “We certainly saw a lot of happy people …
celebrating the election around the world showing a euphoria … in a way we haven’t seen in a long time and this itself suggests a transformational quality.” But
Canon suggested that the exit polls taken during the election were a better indicator of the transformational character of this election.
According to the statistics provided by Canon, youth voters (18-29) voted in proportion to their population for the first time since the voting age was lowered
to 18 years old. This group had 66 percent of its voters supporting Obama. 95 percent of Blacks and 67percent of Latinos voted for Obama. Maybe most
surprisingly though, 52 percent of individuals making more than $200,000 a year voted for Obama despite his intentions to raise this group’s taxes. Essentially,
hints of change in voting behavior were seen in age, race, and income, marking this election as unique compared to past elections.
Professor Kenneth Mayer, a specialist in American government and campaign financing, used his time on the panel to highlight the challenges that await
Obama in the next four years. “I think expectations for Obama are higher for any president since Roosevelt… The spontaneous celebrations we saw last night
reflect the fact that people expect a lot from Obama,” Mayer said.
According to Mayer, Obama’s promises to close Guantanamo Bay and to lower taxes for everyone except the top 5 percent of income earners are two
examples of how Obama is going to be challenged to transition from simple campaign promises to real action. Mayer believed that there are ways to finesse
these issues while on the campaign trail, but once elected, Obama is going to face the reality that he may not be able to carry out every promise he made.
According to Mayer, if Obama enters the office and makes overt decisions that favor the liberal left, who are credited with his election, he may potentially face
a backlash in the future that could severely limit his power. This power struggle between the liberal left and conservative right was highlighted by all three
panelists as being a major issue that Obama will have to deal with early in his term.
All three panelists stressed the importance of Obama “governing from the center.” Mayer reminded everyone of the mistakes President Clinton made early in
his first term. Many people saw Clinton as being too much in favor of the far left and enacted policies in their favor. Two years after his election, Clinton lost a
great deal of his power when the Republican Revolution occurred and shifted the power of Congress significantly in favor of the Republican Party.
Panelists suggested that Obama be aware of the mistakes Clinton made in his presidency and realize that in order to be affective, Obama will need to “tip
toe back to the center,” Mayer said.
Ben Patterson is a UW-Madison student and an intern at Asian Wisconzine.