The 2016 Presidential Race
Is Texas turning into a swing state?
Is Texas turning into a swing state?
Subject: The Role of Texas in the 2016 Presidential Elections
This article was written by the author (a Fil-Am Republican) before the first
presidential debate where according to the CNN poll of viewers, Clinton demolished
Trump by 62% to 27%, and after Donald Trump said in a campaign speech that the
Philippines is a “terrorist nation” and immigration from the Philippines must be
curtailed. This commentary has been published by Fil-Am newspapers in the U.S.
This article was written by the author (a Fil-Am Republican) before the first
presidential debate where according to the CNN poll of viewers, Clinton demolished
Trump by 62% to 27%, and after Donald Trump said in a campaign speech that the
Philippines is a “terrorist nation” and immigration from the Philippines must be
curtailed. This commentary has been published by Fil-Am newspapers in the U.S.
Washington Post survey of a larger pool of registered voters in the state. I personally think it is still a long shot this year,
but stranger things have happened in this highly-diversified state that is geographically bigger than California. If Texas
with its 38 electoral votes (second only to California’s 55) indeed goes Democrat, the elections are over, regardless of
what happens in the other battleground states.
A Brief Primer on Texas Politics
This unexpected development did not come as a surprise to me, as a resident and close observer of Texas politics for
the last 40 years. In fact, I had predicted as far back as three presidential elections ago that before long, Texas would
become a battleground state and eventually turn blue again. Decades ago, before and during the reign of President
Lyndon B. Johnson and Governor Ann Richards, Texas was a democratic bastion. When the Bush family took over, the
state switched parties and has since consistently voted Republican. Although the Democrats have always carried the
inner capital cities of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio due mostly to their large minority populations, the blue-
collar and agricultural white voters in the vast suburbs (locally described as anti-immigrant rednecks) still dominate the
elections, both national and local. These are the sectors of the voting population that never fail to register and cast their
votes at all elections.
On the other hand, it is worthy of note that the southern half of the state is now predominantly Hispanic, a strength in
numbers that has never really been effectively leveraged by the Democrats. Like the Filipino and Asian communities
that have also grown exponentially in the major cities, large segments of the Latino community have never fully
appreciated the importance of registering to vote, preferring to shy away on election day.
Four reasons why Texas could possibly turn blue in November:
1. The populous Hispanic community in Texas has been a sleeping giant that could suddenly wake up and punish
Donald Trump for denigrating and alienating the Mexican-American population. The demographics in this large border
state have dramatically changed in the last two decades. The southern cities that are within 300 miles of the border are
now predominantly Latino, and population experts are predicting that in the next two decades, Hispanics could
outnumber all other ethnic groups including whites in the entire state. Desperate to prevent a Trump victory, Hispanic
community activists are busy visiting large sectors of Mexican-Americans throughout the state convincing them to
register and vote for Clinton. In the last two elections that the Republicans won, George W. Bush enjoyed a sizeable
40% of the Hispanic vote. By contrast, Trump is now favored by less than 15%, a number that is expected to be even
smaller by Election Day. Clinton is also favored by a large plurality of Asian and African-American voters in the state.
2. The power of the Texas media favors Clinton over Trump. The conservative Dallas Morning News, the biggest
newspaper in the state and the 5th largest circulating newspaper in the nation, has recently released a double-
barreled repudiation of Donald Trump and a powerful endorsement of Clinton, and the other major papers are
expected to follow suit. This move is regarded as historic, as the very conservative Dallas newspaper has not
endorsed a Democratic presidential candidate in 75 years, dating back to when they endorsed Franklin Delano
Roosevelt. Trump spokesmen quickly gave a knee-jerk response saying “it was not a surprise coming from a liberal
newspaper”, which is false. The fact is, the Dallas Morning News has always been strongly conservative and
Republican leaning. Even during the glory days of John F. Kennedy and fellow Texan Lyndon B. Johnson, the Dallas
editorial board saw fit to endorse their Republican opponents.
The predominantly conservative members of the DMN editorial board must have seen something extraordinarily
repulsive in Donald Trump. These are excerpts from what the back-to-back editorials said:
In the first editorial “Trump is No Republican”, the Morning News explained the long-held conservative values of
Republicans from Lincoln to Reagan to Bush which Trump has thumbed his nose at. “His ideas are so far from
Republicanism that they have spawned a new description: Trumpism.” It claimed that Reagan would have strongly
rejected Trump’s isolationism as “destructionism”. Trump also wrongly described the Republican-championed U.S.
trade deals that created tons of net jobs in the U.S. and increased exports, while keeping prices low and inflation
negligible, as “a rape of our country.” The first of the back-to-back editorials ended with this strong position: “We have
no interest in a Republican nominee for whom all principles are negotiable, nor in a Republican Party that is willing to
trade away principle for pursuit of electoral victory. Trump does not reflect Republican ideals of the past; we are certain
he shouldn’t reflect the GOP of the future. Donald Trump is not qualified to serve as president and does not deserve
your vote.”
The DMN’s equally strong follow-up editorial endorsed Clinton as the only one serious candidate on the presidential
ballot in November. It said that the editorial board did not come to this decision easily. The conservative paper has not
recommended a Democrat for the nation’s highest office since WWII. That’s more than 75 years and nearly 20
elections. “We’ve been critical of Clinton’s handling of certain issues in the past. But unlike Trump, Clinton has the
experience in actual governance, a record of service and a willingness to delve into real policy. Resume vs resume,
judgment vs judgment, this election is no contest.”
“In Clinton’s eight years in the U.S. Senate, she displayed reach and influence in foreign affairs. Though conservatives
like to paint her as nakedly partisan, she gained respect from Republicans for working across the aisle: Two-thirds of
her bills had GOP co-sponsors and included common ground with some of Congress’ most conservative lawmakers.”
“Trump’s values are hostile to conservatism. He plays on fear – exploiting base instincts of xenophobia, racism
and misogyny – to bring out the worst in all of us, rather than the best.”
The DMN’s second editorial concludes: “For all her warts, Clinton is the candidate more likely to keep us safe, to
protect American ideals and to work across the aisle to uphold the vital domestic institutions that rely on competent,
experienced president. Clinton has spent years in the trenches doing the hard work needed to prepare herself to lead
our nation. In this race, at this time, she deserves your vote.”
3. An in-depth analysis of Trump’s base of support would show that his strongest support in Texas (and in most
other states as well) comes from blue-collar, suburban whites. Traditionally, both men and women blue-collar
suburban whites in the state have consistently voted Republican. But this time, to the surprise of pollsters and pundits,
Trump is trailing by double-digits among female blue-collar, suburban whites in Texas. If this trend continues and
Clinton’s support among women and minorities in the big cities solidifies, things would not bode well for the
controversial Donald Trump.
By contrast, Hillary Clinton has been a popular figure in Texas for a long time, coming from a neighboring state and
sharing their southern values. She handily won both Democratic primaries in Texas (against Obama in 2008 and
Bernie Sanders in 2016).
4. Big name Republicans in the lone star state are distancing themselves from Trump. In all past elections, the
Republican nominees got 100% endorsement and support from Republican leaders. This year, for the first time, not a
single Texas Republican of note has endorsed Trump. Texans also feel a strong sense of affinity and loyalty towards
hometown leaders who have proudly represented them in the national and international stage. And the most respected
Republicans in the state – the Bush family which includes two living and highly-admired former presidents – have
publicly declared that they are not voting for Trump. In fact, their matriarch Barbara Bush was overheard as saying that
push comes to shove and if it would make a difference, she mighteven vote for Hillary. (The elder George Bush has, in
fact, declared that he was voting for Clinton). Formerly political rivals, the Bush family now holds the Clintons in high
esteem, calling Bill Clinton “a brother with a different mother”. Bill Clinton has partnered with the senior Bush and with
George W. in many philanthropic world tours to raise awareness and provide direct support for victims of catastrophic
disasters in third world countries. Even when keeping a very low profile, the Bush family still wields a huge influence
over Texans.
On a lighter note, famous Texas billionaire Mark Cuban, a Republican, has issued a challenge to Donald Trump to put
his money where his mouth is. He is wagering $1 million that Trump would lose in November. No response from
Trump.
Taking Texas for granted as a traditionally red state, neither candidate has spent time and resources in Texas except to
raise funds from the rich Republicans and Democrats – “as their ATM machines”. To see the political ads that are
constantly shown in the battleground states, we have to search for them in YouTube. But with Texas now thrown into
the political discourse as possibly joining other red states that have suddenly become competitive, such as Georgia,
Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, we could see a surge of interest in the state among the candidates and their
campaign leaders in the waning days of the campaign.
Members of the Texas Chambers of Commerce who are pro-trade Republicans and are the biggest beneficiaries of
NAFTA and other trade deals are also wary about supporting the isolationist Trump, whom they think would be
disastrous for the Texas economy.
Texas turning blue in the future is inevitable, but I still would not bet money that our great state would do it this year. It
would not be a complete surprise, however, if it did. Clinton is already ahead in the big metropolitan cities and enjoys a
big plurality among Hispanic, African American, Asian American and other minority voters. Trump registers close to
zero percent among African-Americans and Middle-Eastern Americans. The big deciding factor lies in the eventual
turnout of a very large segment of Hispanic voters who were not voting before, and how strongly the suburban white
women detest Trump. If these groups stay home, the state will continue to be in the red column, albeit with a much
smaller margin.
Even if Texas stays Republican in November, my fearless forecast is that Trump will be the big loser nationally in
November – by a single digit in the popular vote, and a near landslide in the electoral votes. Read my other article“Five
reasons why Trump will lose and lose big; How the elections will affect the Philippines.”
About the author: Gus Mercado has been a Filipino business and civic leader in Texas for more than 35 years. His
high-tech company, Datalogix, has created hundreds of jobs in 20 states for minority engineers, mostly Filipinos. In
2014, he received the prestigious “Banaag Presidential Award” for outstanding stewardship of Filipinos in America.
While his wife, Honorary Consul Ethel Reyes-Mercado is a devout Democrat, Gus is a registered Republican who votes
Independent in national elections. He voted for Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, George W. Bush
and John McCain. His litmus test for presidential candidates, other than leadership and character is who can best serve
the interest of the Philippines, the Filipinos and Filipino-Americans. Reactions to this article may be sent to
gusmercado@verizon.net.
but stranger things have happened in this highly-diversified state that is geographically bigger than California. If Texas
with its 38 electoral votes (second only to California’s 55) indeed goes Democrat, the elections are over, regardless of
what happens in the other battleground states.
A Brief Primer on Texas Politics
This unexpected development did not come as a surprise to me, as a resident and close observer of Texas politics for
the last 40 years. In fact, I had predicted as far back as three presidential elections ago that before long, Texas would
become a battleground state and eventually turn blue again. Decades ago, before and during the reign of President
Lyndon B. Johnson and Governor Ann Richards, Texas was a democratic bastion. When the Bush family took over, the
state switched parties and has since consistently voted Republican. Although the Democrats have always carried the
inner capital cities of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio due mostly to their large minority populations, the blue-
collar and agricultural white voters in the vast suburbs (locally described as anti-immigrant rednecks) still dominate the
elections, both national and local. These are the sectors of the voting population that never fail to register and cast their
votes at all elections.
On the other hand, it is worthy of note that the southern half of the state is now predominantly Hispanic, a strength in
numbers that has never really been effectively leveraged by the Democrats. Like the Filipino and Asian communities
that have also grown exponentially in the major cities, large segments of the Latino community have never fully
appreciated the importance of registering to vote, preferring to shy away on election day.
Four reasons why Texas could possibly turn blue in November:
1. The populous Hispanic community in Texas has been a sleeping giant that could suddenly wake up and punish
Donald Trump for denigrating and alienating the Mexican-American population. The demographics in this large border
state have dramatically changed in the last two decades. The southern cities that are within 300 miles of the border are
now predominantly Latino, and population experts are predicting that in the next two decades, Hispanics could
outnumber all other ethnic groups including whites in the entire state. Desperate to prevent a Trump victory, Hispanic
community activists are busy visiting large sectors of Mexican-Americans throughout the state convincing them to
register and vote for Clinton. In the last two elections that the Republicans won, George W. Bush enjoyed a sizeable
40% of the Hispanic vote. By contrast, Trump is now favored by less than 15%, a number that is expected to be even
smaller by Election Day. Clinton is also favored by a large plurality of Asian and African-American voters in the state.
2. The power of the Texas media favors Clinton over Trump. The conservative Dallas Morning News, the biggest
newspaper in the state and the 5th largest circulating newspaper in the nation, has recently released a double-
barreled repudiation of Donald Trump and a powerful endorsement of Clinton, and the other major papers are
expected to follow suit. This move is regarded as historic, as the very conservative Dallas newspaper has not
endorsed a Democratic presidential candidate in 75 years, dating back to when they endorsed Franklin Delano
Roosevelt. Trump spokesmen quickly gave a knee-jerk response saying “it was not a surprise coming from a liberal
newspaper”, which is false. The fact is, the Dallas Morning News has always been strongly conservative and
Republican leaning. Even during the glory days of John F. Kennedy and fellow Texan Lyndon B. Johnson, the Dallas
editorial board saw fit to endorse their Republican opponents.
The predominantly conservative members of the DMN editorial board must have seen something extraordinarily
repulsive in Donald Trump. These are excerpts from what the back-to-back editorials said:
In the first editorial “Trump is No Republican”, the Morning News explained the long-held conservative values of
Republicans from Lincoln to Reagan to Bush which Trump has thumbed his nose at. “His ideas are so far from
Republicanism that they have spawned a new description: Trumpism.” It claimed that Reagan would have strongly
rejected Trump’s isolationism as “destructionism”. Trump also wrongly described the Republican-championed U.S.
trade deals that created tons of net jobs in the U.S. and increased exports, while keeping prices low and inflation
negligible, as “a rape of our country.” The first of the back-to-back editorials ended with this strong position: “We have
no interest in a Republican nominee for whom all principles are negotiable, nor in a Republican Party that is willing to
trade away principle for pursuit of electoral victory. Trump does not reflect Republican ideals of the past; we are certain
he shouldn’t reflect the GOP of the future. Donald Trump is not qualified to serve as president and does not deserve
your vote.”
The DMN’s equally strong follow-up editorial endorsed Clinton as the only one serious candidate on the presidential
ballot in November. It said that the editorial board did not come to this decision easily. The conservative paper has not
recommended a Democrat for the nation’s highest office since WWII. That’s more than 75 years and nearly 20
elections. “We’ve been critical of Clinton’s handling of certain issues in the past. But unlike Trump, Clinton has the
experience in actual governance, a record of service and a willingness to delve into real policy. Resume vs resume,
judgment vs judgment, this election is no contest.”
“In Clinton’s eight years in the U.S. Senate, she displayed reach and influence in foreign affairs. Though conservatives
like to paint her as nakedly partisan, she gained respect from Republicans for working across the aisle: Two-thirds of
her bills had GOP co-sponsors and included common ground with some of Congress’ most conservative lawmakers.”
“Trump’s values are hostile to conservatism. He plays on fear – exploiting base instincts of xenophobia, racism
and misogyny – to bring out the worst in all of us, rather than the best.”
The DMN’s second editorial concludes: “For all her warts, Clinton is the candidate more likely to keep us safe, to
protect American ideals and to work across the aisle to uphold the vital domestic institutions that rely on competent,
experienced president. Clinton has spent years in the trenches doing the hard work needed to prepare herself to lead
our nation. In this race, at this time, she deserves your vote.”
3. An in-depth analysis of Trump’s base of support would show that his strongest support in Texas (and in most
other states as well) comes from blue-collar, suburban whites. Traditionally, both men and women blue-collar
suburban whites in the state have consistently voted Republican. But this time, to the surprise of pollsters and pundits,
Trump is trailing by double-digits among female blue-collar, suburban whites in Texas. If this trend continues and
Clinton’s support among women and minorities in the big cities solidifies, things would not bode well for the
controversial Donald Trump.
By contrast, Hillary Clinton has been a popular figure in Texas for a long time, coming from a neighboring state and
sharing their southern values. She handily won both Democratic primaries in Texas (against Obama in 2008 and
Bernie Sanders in 2016).
4. Big name Republicans in the lone star state are distancing themselves from Trump. In all past elections, the
Republican nominees got 100% endorsement and support from Republican leaders. This year, for the first time, not a
single Texas Republican of note has endorsed Trump. Texans also feel a strong sense of affinity and loyalty towards
hometown leaders who have proudly represented them in the national and international stage. And the most respected
Republicans in the state – the Bush family which includes two living and highly-admired former presidents – have
publicly declared that they are not voting for Trump. In fact, their matriarch Barbara Bush was overheard as saying that
push comes to shove and if it would make a difference, she mighteven vote for Hillary. (The elder George Bush has, in
fact, declared that he was voting for Clinton). Formerly political rivals, the Bush family now holds the Clintons in high
esteem, calling Bill Clinton “a brother with a different mother”. Bill Clinton has partnered with the senior Bush and with
George W. in many philanthropic world tours to raise awareness and provide direct support for victims of catastrophic
disasters in third world countries. Even when keeping a very low profile, the Bush family still wields a huge influence
over Texans.
On a lighter note, famous Texas billionaire Mark Cuban, a Republican, has issued a challenge to Donald Trump to put
his money where his mouth is. He is wagering $1 million that Trump would lose in November. No response from
Trump.
Taking Texas for granted as a traditionally red state, neither candidate has spent time and resources in Texas except to
raise funds from the rich Republicans and Democrats – “as their ATM machines”. To see the political ads that are
constantly shown in the battleground states, we have to search for them in YouTube. But with Texas now thrown into
the political discourse as possibly joining other red states that have suddenly become competitive, such as Georgia,
Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, we could see a surge of interest in the state among the candidates and their
campaign leaders in the waning days of the campaign.
Members of the Texas Chambers of Commerce who are pro-trade Republicans and are the biggest beneficiaries of
NAFTA and other trade deals are also wary about supporting the isolationist Trump, whom they think would be
disastrous for the Texas economy.
Texas turning blue in the future is inevitable, but I still would not bet money that our great state would do it this year. It
would not be a complete surprise, however, if it did. Clinton is already ahead in the big metropolitan cities and enjoys a
big plurality among Hispanic, African American, Asian American and other minority voters. Trump registers close to
zero percent among African-Americans and Middle-Eastern Americans. The big deciding factor lies in the eventual
turnout of a very large segment of Hispanic voters who were not voting before, and how strongly the suburban white
women detest Trump. If these groups stay home, the state will continue to be in the red column, albeit with a much
smaller margin.
Even if Texas stays Republican in November, my fearless forecast is that Trump will be the big loser nationally in
November – by a single digit in the popular vote, and a near landslide in the electoral votes. Read my other article“Five
reasons why Trump will lose and lose big; How the elections will affect the Philippines.”
About the author: Gus Mercado has been a Filipino business and civic leader in Texas for more than 35 years. His
high-tech company, Datalogix, has created hundreds of jobs in 20 states for minority engineers, mostly Filipinos. In
2014, he received the prestigious “Banaag Presidential Award” for outstanding stewardship of Filipinos in America.
While his wife, Honorary Consul Ethel Reyes-Mercado is a devout Democrat, Gus is a registered Republican who votes
Independent in national elections. He voted for Ronald Reagan, George Bush, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, George W. Bush
and John McCain. His litmus test for presidential candidates, other than leadership and character is who can best serve
the interest of the Philippines, the Filipinos and Filipino-Americans. Reactions to this article may be sent to
gusmercado@verizon.net.
By Gus Mercado
Recent polls showing Clinton and Trump in a dead heat in the traditionally
Republican state came as a big surprise to national political pundits who never
thought that Texas could one day turn into a blue state. Last week’s polls showed
that Trump was leading among likely voters while Clinton was favored by a
Recent polls showing Clinton and Trump in a dead heat in the traditionally
Republican state came as a big surprise to national political pundits who never
thought that Texas could one day turn into a blue state. Last week’s polls showed
that Trump was leading among likely voters while Clinton was favored by a