Forecast for China
By John S. Pinto
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of borders (China has 14), eclipse the United States in East Asia and regain its 'lost' territory. There are three
possibilities for China's next quarter-century.
First is that there will be no shift to a different political system. The Communist party will buy off the Chinese
people with a better material way of life. The present communist leaders have no intention of abandoning the
present system. They want economic change, but not political change. China now has the economic muscle to
pacify the losers of its reforms, namely farmers and the resulting unemployed workers. Chinese dictatorships
have never been theocratic. They have been pragmatic and thus there is no fanaticism. The leadership is not shy
about playing the nationalistic card, using space missions and the Olympic games to keep the people happy.
Will this commercialized dictatorship survive? We do not know for sure, but chances are that it will not, based on
previous experience.
Second, China will transform itself into a democracy. Other Leninist states have adopted some form of
democracy. In fact, democracy has taken root in parts of Chinese civilization in Taiwan and Hong Kong. There
were flickers of democracy in the early 20th century, but warlordism and the Sino-Japanese War put an end to
them. Other arguments for democracy are that you can buy a house (but not the land it sits on), education is at
respectable levels and professionals such as lawyers and journalists are pushing for autonomy. A transition to
democracy may be hindered by the hierarchical structure of Chinese society — there is not a tradition of voting
one's own interests, but voting the way the clan power holders tell people to vote. Another barrier is that 250
million Chinese are illiterate. There is no common national language and people from one region of the country
cannot communicate with people from another part of the country.
The third possibility is that the country could fracture. Historically, the western half of the country is not Chinese
at all. It has been at various times a Tibetan kingdom, part of Mongolia and a Turkish state. China conquered
Tibet in the 1950s and Tibet has since tried to regain its independence. Economic development and cell phones
may embolden Tibetans and the Muslim western part of the country to organize and secede. The most important
factor in arguing against fracture is that China's population is 92 percent Chinese. By contrast, the Soviet Union
was only 50 percent Russian. China has experienced disunity in the past and its people and government are
more wary of disunity than is true in most other countries.
In summary, the Communist Party will hang on for as long as possible. If it fails to control the population, we
could see great changes in China. These changes could cause chaos and confusion for a time, but eventually a
new social order will emerge. Whatever happens, it will affect all of us.
Anytime we buy something, chances are it has been made in China. China's GDP quadrupled in
Deng Xiaoping's two decades (1978 to 1992) of leadership. Since then it has grown even faster at
10-11 percent a year. Foreign trade has skyrocketed. China's economic advance has led to
military expansion, diplomatic sophistication and swelling nationalism. China's aims are to
sustain its economic growth, have a tranquil set