China: Prepared to rise?
By Shang Zuo
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Last November, China Central TV broadcast a documentary TV series titled "The Rise of the Great Powers."
The scale and depth of the series spurred discussions domestically, and heightened interests abroad. According to some, the
Chinese government doesn't speak straight, though what they say might convey some crucial messages. Every bland official
statement could imply some political climate changes. The documentary is a solid work on its own, and some speculate it
might have more profound meanings.
"The Rise of the Great Powers" consisted of 12 episodes, totaling 600 minutes. It explored nine countries that achieved global
influence in the past five centuries: Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, and the
United States. It analyzed the reasons why they rose, and, in some cases, the reasons why they fell.
The scope and the title of the series naturally reminded me of Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers."
Fortunately, the author himself was interviewed in the documentary, among other historians, economists, and politicians around
the world.
The 12 episodes were organized in this way: the series spent one episode on Portugal and Spain, assumedly because the
two countries dominated the world in roughly the same period, and rose and fell for similar reasons. The Netherlands, France,
Germany, and Japan each took one episode. Britain, Russia, and the United States took two episodes each. And the last
episode drew conclusions.
It's not surprising that some countries concern the Chinese more than others. Britain started the Industrial Revolution and it
was the first nation that became a modern society. Russia was a superpower; it imprinted sentimental memories in the
Chinese people and left some legacies. The United States is undisputedly the only superpower today.
The last episode attempted to highlight some widely acknowledged approaches to modernization, including: the unification of
a nation, effective exercise of the state's power, a peaceful international environment, the rule of law, democracy, technological
innovation and system innovation. It stressed that humankind's future relies on cooperation rather than confrontation, echoing
the "Peaceful Rise" slogan China recently introduced to the international community. Its perspective also echoed how the
Chinese typically view history, which is: the rise and fall of great dynasties and nations are a natural process considering
thousands of years of history; and implied that the game should be played patiently and with foresight.
The principles could be considered long-term strategies, and they may serve some very practical reasons as well. Making
unification as the base of a nation's rise might be rooted in the concerns of Taiwan's potential troublesome situation. Stressing
on regional cooperation reflected China's diplomatic efforts to develop free trades with its Asian neighbors.
Its praise toward democracy will please the world, but a Western audience could also easily identify some ideas that differ
from Western thought. The series argued that Germany, Japan, and Russia took a different path to industrialization from other
developed countries. They were backward nations and achieved industrialization at a much faster speed by utilizing the power of
the state. The argument justified China's policy. The Chinese government takes more responsibilities in economic activities in
the current early stage of modernization than other nations do. This contradicts the free market theory firmly held by Western
economists who advocate privatization and less government controls. In some respects, however, what China does is not really
new and has been proved effective in history. China's policy of using gigantic government projects to stimulate
demand-and-supply cycle might have been copied exactly from Roosevelt's "New Deal."
Did the series oversimplify the process of human development? If the path to modernization is so clear, why does most of the
world still live in poverty? The series obviously recognized the challenge. It actually emphasized that the way to prosperity doesn't
have a clear answer nor does it have a single, universal answer that's applicable to every country. It's still waiting for every one of
us to explore.
"The Rise of the Great Powers," in general, was welcomed by both Chinese audiences and the outside world. Chinese
people, at the time, were very receptive to new ideas. This series promotes a more confident, open-minded and cooperative
attitude in the world. This could definitely be considered a good sign. It also has special meanings in the present time because
the international community is calling China to play a more responsible and constructive role in world affairs. It's unrealistic to
talk about China as a great power but it's time for the Chinese to start thinking about their roles and their effect on the world.